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Racer Timo (urmaul)
Race Number 13291
Date Fri, 18 Jul 2014 13:41:32 +0000
Speed 100 WPM Try to beat?
Accuracy 98.2%
Rank 1st place (out of 5)
Opponents dullthings (3rd place) flojesy (2nd place) luis2010 (4th place) zcbnzcbn (5th place)

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The pathology of setting a deadline to the earliest articulable date essentially guarantees that the schedule will be missed. Even the strategy of picking the "most likely date" is not particularly safe, as the area to the left of the peak of the curve is barely a third. That says there is a two-thirds chance of missing the deadline.
Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects (book) by Tom DeMarco, Timothy Lister (see stats)